The potential target for Oil on the next run up is US$147. Toward the magical US$150 mark would be simply too politically volatile to contemplate at this time. Hence any speculative longs, especially the very large fund players who need liquidity to exit with high profit, are likely to be selling into the euphoria that may grip an approach toward US$150. Certainly new highs are likely to see a fresh speculative buying wave that would provide both higher prices and high volume in the short run. 

SOURCE: SonrayTrader 2 24 June 2008

The weekly chart above shows an uptrend of the last year and a half, with a range of 124 to 147 over the next few weeks. The acceleration seen this year suggests a range potential over the next few weeks of 130 to 150. The favoured technical view is 130, or support at 134, holding for 147.
 
The next few weeks are crucial as given the fanfare leading into the meeting in Jeddah, designed to contain the price of oil, the outcome has been rather flat. Flat in terms that the price of oil after an initial knee jerk reaction, is again showing signs of strength.

Despite all the fundamental arguments that can be made about supply and demand, the market reality is that many speculators squared their positions last week to avoid any downside volatility that may have been generated by the Jeddah meeting. Now that risk is out of the way, and the oil market continues to consolidate rather than reject this year’s strident gains, it appears prudent to again hedge against further significant oil price gains. As the week progresses, that is very likely what most market participants will again be doing.  A break of 138.50 is likely to see a panicked chase toward our US$147 target. The overall outlook remains bullish while 129.50 holds.